NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 19 Aug 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 19 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only a few small subflares
occurred, none of which with significant x-ray output. Region 9585
(N15E37) continued to grow but at a slower pace. New Region 9588
(S32W55) emerged on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
solar energetic proton event ended (start 16/0135 UTC, 493 pfu peak
at 16/0355 UTC, and end 18/1845 UTC).
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Aug 158
Predicted   20 Aug-22 Aug  160/165/170
90 Day Mean        19 Aug 152
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug  013/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug  010/012-010/010-010/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01