Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 18 Oct 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
October 18, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 18 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  The first half of
the day produced multiple low level C-class flares that were not
optically correlated.  At 18/1350 UTC, Region 9658 (S14W48) produced
a C6/1n flare and an associated radio enhancements.  White light
analysis of this region shows a slight decay in areal coverage of
spots, though it remains a beta-gamma magnetic class group.  Region
9661 (N16W23) followed with a C4/Sf flare at 18/1609 UTC and
continues to show the potential to produce much more significant
activity.  This region has shown a small decay in areal coverage of
spot group from yesterday, although it still continues to be a
large, magnetically complex region.  New Region 9672 (S21E69)
produced the largest flare of the day, a C8/Sf flare that occurred
at 18/1905 UTC.  This region may very well be old Region 9632 which
currently appears to have not fully rotated onto disk.  Two new
Regions were numbered today, 9672 and 9673 (N03E73).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  There are several regions on the disk that
are capable of producing M-class or isolated major flares, the most
noteworthy being Region 9661.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels through forecast
period, barring the occurrence of an earth-directed CME.  High
latitudes may experience isolated periods of active conditions
during days one and two.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Oct 229
Predicted   19 Oct-21 Oct  235/240/245
90 Day Mean        18 Oct 188
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  005/010-005/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.