NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 18 Nov 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Nov 18 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 9704 (S18E16) continued
to produce C-class subflares, the largest being a C7/Sn at 18/0919
UTC. This region has changed little since yesterday, maintaining
moderate magnetic complexity. Region 9697 (N12W19) also produced
subflares but none were associated with significant x-ray output.
New Region 9710 (S10E46) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9704 is the most likely candidate for M-class
activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled becoming unsettled to active by 20
November. This increased activity is anticipated in response to a
CME associated with the M2/1n flare which occurred on 17 November.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Nov 188
Predicted   19 Nov-21 Nov  185/180/175
90 Day Mean        18 Nov 217
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov  010/010-015/015-015/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05