NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 18 Mar 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Mar 18 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 9373 (S07W43) produced
several small C-class flares.  One flare at 18/0850 UTC was an C3/1f
with an associated Type II radio sweep.  This region continues to
increase in size, spot count, and maintains a beta-gamma magnetic
classification.  New Region 9386 (N03W11) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active periods are
possible for 19 and 20 March due to the CME which occurred late on
15 March.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Mar 140
Predicted   19 Mar-21 Mar  135/130/135
90 Day Mean        18 Mar 160
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar  015/015-015/010-008/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01