NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 18 Jul 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jul 18 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The largest event of the
period was an optically uncorrelated C3 flare. Although there are
thirteen numbered regions on the disk, none of them show any
outstanding complexity.  Region 9539 (S19W58), which has been the
most active and complex region for the last 5 days, decayed
dramatically.  New Regions 9547 (S16W22), 9548 (N17E50), 9549
(S04E57), and 9550 (N08E38) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet with occasional unsettled conditions
at high latitudes.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active
periods are possible due to the effects of a recurrent coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jul 143
Predicted   19 Jul-21 Jul  145/145/140
90 Day Mean        18 Jul 159
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul  011/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul  010/010-010/012-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01