NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 18 Jul 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jul 18 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest event of the
period was an optically uncorrelated C3 flare. Although there are
thirteen numbered regions on the disk, none of them show any
outstanding complexity. Region 9539 (S19W58), which has been the
most active and complex region for the last 5 days, decayed
dramatically. New Regions 9547 (S16W22), 9548 (N17E50), 9549
(S04E57), and 9550 (N08E38) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet with occasional unsettled conditions
at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active
periods are possible due to the effects of a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jul 143
Predicted 19 Jul-21 Jul 145/145/140
90 Day Mean 18 Jul 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul 011/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 010/010-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01