NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 18 Jan 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Jan 18 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z

to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels. Isolated C-class

X-ray flares occurred. There were two sunspot groups of note: Region

9782 (N06W22) and Region 9786 (S26W19). Region 9782 underwent minor

changes with a small decrease in area, but continued to show a mix

of polarities within its southern leader spots. Region 9786 appeared

to be in a gradual growth phase, but was simply structured. The

remaining regions were unremarkable. New Region 9788 (N16E53) was

numbered.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be

predominately low. However, there will be a small chance for an

isolated low-level M-class flare from Region 9782.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The

greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit decreased

to normal to moderate levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is

expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. However, there will

be a chance for brief active levels on 20 – 21 January due to

coronal hole effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is

expected to remain at normal to moderate levels.