NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 18 Feb 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Feb 18 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z

to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels for the eighth

consecutive day. Isolated C-class subflares occurred. Region 9830

(S18E20) produced a few subflares as it continued to gradually

increase in size and complexity. Multiple magnetic delta

configurations have developed within its leader spots during recent

days. Region 9825 (N14W51) continued to gradually decay. New Region

9832 (S13E25) was numbered.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate. Region 9830 could produce an isolated M-class flare

during the period.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is

expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels.

III.  Event Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb

Class M    40/40/40

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           18 Feb 193

Predicted   19 Feb-21 Feb  195/190/185

90 Day Mean        18 Feb 222

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb  006/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb  007/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb  007/012-007/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01