NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 18 Feb 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 18 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 9354 (S09E07) continued
to show minor growth in area and spots since yesterday.  New Regions
9355 (N19E35), 9356 (S13W10), 9357 (S25E34), and 9358 (S08E46) were
numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels briefly during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet with periods of unsettled conditions
possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Feb 132
Predicted   19 Feb-21 Feb  135/135/140
90 Day Mean        18 Feb 170
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01