Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 18 Dec 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
December 18, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Dec 18 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels. Only isolated C-class
events were observed during the period. Three regions have
moderately complex beta-gamma magnetic classification: 9733
(N13W62), 9738 (S18W12), and 9742 (N10E37). Regions 9738 and 9742
are showing signs of increased activity and growth, while 9733 is
steadily decaying.  Region 9733 will rotate over the west limb on 21
December. One new region was numbered: 9745 (N18E60).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 9738 and 9742 are expected to
continue to grow in size and complexity and should produce increased
levels of activity. Region 9733 continues to retain a slight chance
of producing a major flare before it transits over the western limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Dec 212
Predicted   19 Dec-21 Dec  200/200/195
90 Day Mean        18 Dec 219
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec  009/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.