Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 18 Aug 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
August 18, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 18 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares
occurred, principally from Region 9582 (N28E33). The other main area
of note is Region 9585 (N15E50) which has grown considerably in
sunspot area and has increased its magnetic complexity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Additional C-class flares are possible in Regions 9582 and 9585. A
small chance of M-level activity also exists.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field remained at storm levels until about 18/0000
UTC and was mostly unsettled to active after that. The greater than
10 MeV solar energetic proton event continues to slowly decay and
has been fluctuating around the 10 pfu event threshold for most of
the day.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active becoming quiet to unsettled by
the second day of the forecast period. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to end by 19 August.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Aug 156
Predicted   19 Aug-21 Aug  160/165/170
90 Day Mean        18 Aug 151
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug  027/029
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug  012/012-010/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

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