NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 17 Sep 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Sep 17 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 9616 (S12E03) produced
an M1/2n impulsive flare at 17/0825 UTC accompanied by a Type II
radio sweep (764 km/s) and a 460 sfu Tenflare. LASCO/EIT observed a
partial halo CME associated with this event. Region 9608 (S30W75)
produced an M8/1n at 17/1550 UTC with an associated 380 sfu
Tenflare. New Region's 9622 (N12E34), 9623 (N21E46), and 9624
(N03E70) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high with Region's 9608 and 9616 still proving to have
potential to produce a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are possible
for the next three days as a result of the CME activity over the
past few days and a recurrent high speed stream in the solar wind.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Sep 199
Predicted 18 Sep-20 Sep 195/195/200
90 Day Mean 17 Sep 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 015/018-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05