NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 17 Mar 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Mar 17 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past
day was a C3/SF at 17/1720 UTC in Region 9373 (S07W34). Region 9384
(N12W35) also produced small flares. Both of these sunspot groups
have been less active this past day than during the day before. New
Region 9385 (S13E42) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 9373 and 9384 are capable of C-class activity and possibly a
small M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Increased levels of activity are
possible on March 19-20 due to a CME which occurred late on March
15.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Mar 134
Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar  130/130/130
90 Day Mean        17 Mar 161
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar  004/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  008/008-015/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/02/02
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05