NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 17 Mar 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Mar 17 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past
day was a C3/SF at 17/1720 UTC in Region 9373 (S07W34). Region 9384
(N12W35) also produced small flares. Both of these sunspot groups
have been less active this past day than during the day before. New
Region 9385 (S13E42) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 9373 and 9384 are capable of C-class activity and possibly a
small M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Increased levels of activity are
possible on March 19-20 due to a CME which occurred late on March
15.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 134
Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 17 Mar 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 004/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 008/008-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/02/02
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/25/25
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/05