NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 17 June 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jun 17 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low. Today's largest event was
a C3 at 2242 UTC which was not seen optically. Region 9503 (N14E20)
is currently the largest group on the disk, and shows continued
growth, enhanced plage and occasional brightenings. Region 9501
(S13W11) has also shown growth during the past 24 hours. Region 9502
(S25E05) continues to have an east-west inversion line, but appeared
to be a bit cooler today than previously. Region 9506 (N17E48) has
rotated into view as a beta-gamma group, but was relatively calm and
stable. Two filaments disappeared during the past 24 hours: a 14
degree filament near S27W11, and a 28 degree filament near N30E55.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days. There is a slight chance,
however, for an isolated major flare event, particularly from 9503
and 9506.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Quiet
conditions prevailed during the first 15 hours of the period, but
activity increased to unsettled to slightly active between 1200-2100
UTC. Solar wind signatures showed some kind of transient type flow
from 0300-1600 UTC which was accompanied be moderately negative
interplanetary Bz.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field for the
next 24 hours is expected to be mostly unsettled, but with a chance
for isolated active periods. Unsettled levels should prevail on the
second day, and activity should drop to quiet to unsettled levels by
the third day.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jun 205
Predicted   18 Jun-20 Jun  200/200/195
90 Day Mean        17 Jun 172
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  015/015-010/010-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/05