NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 17 Jul 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jul 17 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The largest event was a C2/Sf
flare from Region 9539 (S18W42) at 17/1024 UTC. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active.  Solar wind speeds
reached 600 to 700 km/s due to high-speed streaming from a recurrent
coronal hole.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active during the forecast period.  The
effects of the coronal hole will diminish over day one.  This will
be followed by a brief interlude while another coronal hole moves
into a geo-effective position for the second and third days.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jul 146
Predicted   18 Jul-20 Jul  150/150/150
90 Day Mean        17 Jul 159
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul  011/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul  018/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01