NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 17 Jul 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jul 17 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest event was a C2/Sf
flare from Region 9539 (S18W42) at 17/1024 UTC. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind speeds
reached 600 to 700 km/s due to high-speed streaming from a recurrent
coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active during the forecast period. The
effects of the coronal hole will diminish over day one. This will
be followed by a brief interlude while another coronal hole moves
into a geo-effective position for the second and third days.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jul 146
Predicted 18 Jul-20 Jul 150/150/150
90 Day Mean 17 Jul 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul 011/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul 018/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 010/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01