NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 17 Jan 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 17 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels.  There are four
spotted regions on the disk, all in the northern hemisphere.  The
largest, Region 9306 (N13W64), is decaying.  Several class C X-ray
events have been recorded, but optical counterparts were not
reported.  A type II followed by type IV radio sweep occurred at
17/0130UTC and appear to be related to activity on the Southeast
limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The field was basically
quiet until  17/1631UTC when a sudden impulse was observed.  The
field has been unsettled since that time.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M    50/30/20
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jan 152
Predicted   18 Jan-20 Jan  155/145/140
90 Day Mean        17 Jan 175
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan  006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  005/010-005/007-005/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01