Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 17 Feb 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
February 17, 2001
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 17 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 9354 (S08E20) grew
in area and spot count since yesterday. Overall the disk and limbs
were mostly quiet and stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit were at moderate levels throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. A possible shock from a full-halo
CME on the 15th may produce unsettled conditions on the first two
days of the period. Conditions should be at quiet levels for the
third day.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Feb 130
Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb  130/130/135
90 Day Mean        17 Feb 170
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  010/010-010/010-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01

SpaceRef staff editor.