NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 17 Feb 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Feb 17 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 9354 (S08E20) grew in area and spot count since yesterday. Overall the disk and limbs were mostly quiet and stable. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at moderate levels throughout the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. A possible shock from a full-halo CME on the 15th may produce unsettled conditions on the first two days of the period. Conditions should be at quiet levels for the third day. III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Feb 130 Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 130/130/135 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 170 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 010/010-010/010-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/40/30 Minor storm 20/20/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/01
