NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 17 Dec 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Dec 17 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only isolated, minor C-class
events occurred during the period. Region 9733 (N14E48) continued to
show signs of gradual decay as it nears the west limb. This region
lost its delta configuration and now retains a beta-gamma
classification. Region 9742 (N08E51) is showing signs of increased
magnetic complexity and should develop into a beta-gamma
classification in the next one or two days.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is still a slight chance of a major event
occurring from Region 9733.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with active conditions
occurring at higher latitudes.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. There is still a slight
chance for a proton flare from Region 9733.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Dec 203
Predicted   18 Dec-20 Dec  200/195/190
90 Day Mean        17 Dec 214
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01