Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 16 Sep 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
September 16, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Sep 16 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was high.  Region 9608 (S29W64) produced
an M5/2n at 16/0353 UTC.  New Regions 9620 (N12E70) and 9621
(N16E76) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with Regions 9608, 9610 (S12W59), and 9616 (S12E16) are
capable of producing a major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.  The greater than
10 MeV proton event on 15 September ended at 15/1545 UTC.  The event
began at 15/1435 UTC and had a peak flux of 11 pfu at 15/1455 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Unsettled to active conditions
are possible on 18 and 19 September as a result of the CME that
occurred on 15 September and a recurrent high speed stream in the
solar wind.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Sep 207
Predicted   17 Sep-19 Sep  200/195/195
90 Day Mean        16 Sep 165
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep  010/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep  012/012-020/020-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.