NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 16 Oct 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 16 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 9661 (N16E04)
produced several C-class flares, the largest being a C6/Sf at
16/1926 UTC.  This region has continued to grow in areal coverage
and spot count, and also has exhibited greater magnetic complexity
over the last 24 hours.  Other minor C-class flares also occurred
throughout the period.  A filament centered near S35W34 disappeared
at about 15/2100 UTC, however no associated CME activity was
apparent in available SOHO/LASCO imagery.  New Region 9670 (S16E67)
was numbered today, indicating the expected return of old Region
9628/9632 complex.  Limb proximity prevents full analysis of the new
region's characteristics.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9661 continues to show the potential
to produce an isolated major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days, barring
the occurrence of an earth directed CME.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Oct 207
Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct  215/215/220
90 Day Mean        16 Oct 186
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  008/008-008/012-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05