NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 16 Nov 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Nov 16 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only isolated minor C-class
activity was observed, the largest being a C2 flare at 16/0926Z from
the NE limb. A considerable amount of surging was observed on the
east limb near NO8. Region 9690 (S17W75) continues its decay phase
as it approaches the west limb. Region 9704 (S18E41) continues to
show some slow growth and now exceeds 400 millionths of white light
area. New Regions 9707 (N14W24), 9708 (N01E05), and 9709 (N20E39),
were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9690 still maintains potential for an isolated
M-class flare as it rotates around the west limb. C-class activity
is possible from Regions 9697 (N13E07), and 9704.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M    45/40/40
Class X    15/10/10
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Nov 202
Predicted   17 Nov-19 Nov  195/190/185
90 Day Mean        16 Nov 217
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01