NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 16 Mar 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Mar 16 2300 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z

to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 9866 (S09W19)

produced an M2/1F flare at 15/2310 UTC. The event had an associated

tenflare (190 sfu), type IV radio sweep, and an enhancement in the

greater than 10 MeV proton flux.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate. Region 9866 is the most likely candidate for M-class

flares.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to become active by 18 March due to the flare/CME mentioned

in Part IA.

III.  Event Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar

Class M    60/50/50

Class X    10/05/05

Proton     05/01/01

PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           16 Mar 185

Predicted   17 Mar-19 Mar  180/180/180

90 Day Mean        16 Mar 215

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  003/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar  005/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  005/008-020/020-020/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/11

B.  High Latitudes

Active                30/30/30

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01