NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 16 Mar 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Mar 16 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 9373 (S07W20) generated
several small C-class flares. The largest of these was a C5/SN at
16/1041 UTC. Region 9384 (N11W23) also produced a number of small
C-class subflares. Both Regions exhibited flare-bright plage
fluctuations throughout the day. A full halo CME was reported by the
SOHO LASCO team as being first observed in the LASCO C2 instrument
at 16/0350 UTC. Timing of the event suggests that it is most likely
associated with an eruptive filament between Regions 9373 and 9384.
Small C-class flares also occurred in these Regions during this time
period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Additional C-class flares are possible in Regions 9373 and 9384.
Both Regions are also capable of a low-level M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Increased activity levels are
possible at the end of the three-day forecast period in response to
the CME discussed in Part IA.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Mar 140
Predicted   17 Mar-19 Mar  135/130/130
90 Day Mean        16 Mar 161
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  005/005-015/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/02