NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 16 Jul 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jul 16 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate with a single M1/1n at
16/0320 UTC from Region 9539 (S18W29). The remainder of the period
saw a number of weak C-class flares, the majority of which were also
from Region 9539. New Regions 9544 (N13W14), 9545 (N09E22), and 9546
(S17E60) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
predominantly low with isolated M flares possible from Region 9539 .
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the first two days of the
period due to the effects of a recurrent coronal hole.  The field
should diminish to quiet to unsettled by day three.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jul 150
Predicted   17 Jul-19 Jul  150/155/160
90 Day Mean        16 Jul 159
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul  006/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul  016/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  012/013-010/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    00/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01