NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 16 Jul 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jul 16 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate with a single M1/1n at
16/0320 UTC from Region 9539 (S18W29). The remainder of the period
saw a number of weak C-class flares, the majority of which were also
from Region 9539. New Regions 9544 (N13W14), 9545 (N09E22), and 9546
(S17E60) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
predominantly low with isolated M flares possible from Region 9539 .
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the first two days of the
period due to the effects of a recurrent coronal hole. The field
should diminish to quiet to unsettled by day three.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 150
Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 150/155/160
90 Day Mean 16 Jul 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 006/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 016/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 012/013-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 00/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01