NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 16 Jan 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Jan 16 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 9775
(S06W86) produced an M1/Sf flare at 16/1013 UTC as well as
occasional C-class subflares. No significant changes were observed
in this region as it began to cross the west limb. Region 9773
(N16W93) produced an isolated C-class subflare as it crossed the
west limb early in the period. Region 9782 (N06E05) showed a minor
increase in area, but appeared to simplify due to the loss of a
delta magnetic configuration in the southern portion of its leader
spots. New Region 9786 (S26E07) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. An isolated M-class flare will be possible
from Region 9775 as it continues to rotate out of view. There will
also be a chance for an M-class flare from Region 9782.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event that began at 15/1435 UTC ended at 16/1205
UTC. The maximum for this event was 15 PFU at 15/2000 UTC. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels during
the latter half of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. There will be a slight
chance for a proton flare during the period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux is expected to decrease to normal to moderate levels.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M 70/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 216
Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 215/220/220
90 Day Mean 16 Jan 224
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 008/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
