NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 16 Jan 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 16 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 9306 (N11W53) produced
a C2/Sf X-ray event at 16/0611Z.  Otherwise, only a few minor
optically uncorrelated events occurred. While Region 9306 is now
classified as an Fki beta-gamma sunpot group, an overall decrease in
white light area and the number of spots was observed since
yesterday.  New Region 9312 (N08E60) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominately low.  Region 9306 continues to have the capability to
produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M    50/50/30
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jan 162
Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan  160/155/150
90 Day Mean        16 Jan 175
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  008/010-005/010-005/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01