NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 16 Feb 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Feb 16 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been low, with only a few, low-level
C-class flares during the past 24 hours. Region 9825 (N13W24)
continues to decay and simplify. Region 9830 (S20E44) showed
moderate growth during the past 24 hours and exhibited occasional
brightenings and plage fluctuations. New Region 9831 (S11W41)
emerged on the disk today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is, however, a chance for an isolated M-class event, either
from Region 9825, or possibly from Region 9830 if it continues to
emerge.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with occasional active periods over
the next two days as a possible response to the partial halo CME
from the southwest part of the disk on 14 February. Quiet conditions
are expected to prevail on the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 194
Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 190/190/190
90 Day Mean 16 Feb 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 015/012-015/012-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor storm 20/20/10
Major-severe storm 10/10/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/35/25
Minor storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/05
