Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 16 Feb 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
February 16, 2001
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 16 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Two new regions were numbered,
9353 (S23E17) and 9354 (S09E34). A full-halo CME was observed by the
SOHO/LASCO spacecraft starting at 15/1430 UTC. The origin of this
activity is thought to be close to but not connected to Region 9350
(N18E16 at 15/2400 UTC).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
to be very low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. The expected arrival of the CME
described in section IA may produce isolated active periods,
possibly starting late on the first day of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Feb 130
Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb  130/130/135
90 Day Mean        16 Feb 170
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  010/010-012/010-012/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.