NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 16 Feb 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 16 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Two new regions were numbered,
9353 (S23E17) and 9354 (S09E34). A full-halo CME was observed by the
SOHO/LASCO spacecraft starting at 15/1430 UTC. The origin of this
activity is thought to be close to but not connected to Region 9350
(N18E16 at 15/2400 UTC).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. The expected arrival of the CME
described in section IA may produce isolated active periods,
possibly starting late on the first day of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 130
Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 130/130/135
90 Day Mean 16 Feb 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 010/010-012/010-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/40/40
Minor storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/05