NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 15 Sep 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Sep 15 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  There were three low
level M-class events during the period. Region 9608 (S28W54)
produced an M1/1n at 15/1128 UTC.  This event was accompanied by a
Type II radio sweep with an approximate speed of 700 km/s.  Data
from SOHO/LASCO indicated a CME visible with this event. Region 9616
(S12W68) produced an M3 at 14/2150 UTC which was confirmed by the
LASCO/EIT images, and an M1/1f at 15/1559 UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  An isolated major flare is possible from Region 9608,
9610 (S13W46), or 9616.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.  A greater than 10 MeV
proton event began at 15/1435 UTC with a peak flux observed at
15/1455 UTC of 11 pfu.  Protons remain enhanced at this time.  The
most likely source of this activity was the CME from Region 9608 at
15/1128 UTC mentioned in Part IA above.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled.  Unsettled to
active conditions are possible on 18 September as a result of
today's CME activity and a recurrent high speed stream in the solar
wind.  The greater than 10 MeV protons should remain enhanced for
the first day of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     90/10/10
PCAF       in progress
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Sep 219
Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep  215/215/210
90 Day Mean        15 Sep 165
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  015/015-012/012-020/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05