NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 15 Oct 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 15 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. X-ray background levels
continue at the C-class threshold with several superposed C-class
flares, mostly in Region 9661 (N15E17). This sunspot group remains
the largest and most active group on the disk. It is a moderately
large E-type group which has steadily, but slowly, grown in area and
magnetic complexity since its arrival on the disk. New Regions 9668
(N29E01) and 9669 (N13E70) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9661 appears capable of an isolated major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A single
active period (15/0300-0600 UTC) occurred at many locations.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Oct 193
Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct  195/200/200
90 Day Mean        15 Oct 185
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  008/008-008/008-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05