NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 15 Nov 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Nov 15 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 9690 (S17W60)
produced an M1/1f at 14/2211Z with minor centimetric bursts. Other
minor C-class events were observed in this region which continues to
gradually decay. Minor C-class flares were also observed in
developing Regions 9703 (N23W01), and 9704 (S18E56). Region 9697
(N13E20) is in a slow growth phase and now exceeds 300 millionths of
white light area coverage. Some plage fluctuations were observed,
but no significant magnetic complexity exist at this time.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at moderate levels. Region 9690 is the best source for an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Quiet conditions were
predominant until a small sudden impulse (SI) of 6 nT was observed
on the Boulder magnetometer at 15/1509Z. Unsettled to active
conditions prevailed since the SI.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods at mostly higher latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M    50/50/40
Class X    15/15/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Nov 207
Predicted   16 Nov-18 Nov  205/205/195
90 Day Mean        15 Nov 216
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  010/010-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/25/20
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01