NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 15 Mar 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Mar 15 2210 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z

to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only a few C-class subflares

occurred. Region 9866 (S09W06) has decayed somewhat since yesterday

but retains the delta magnetic configuration in the trailer

sunspots. Region 9871 (S20E44) has changed little. New Region 9872

(S31E09) emerged on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate. M-class activity, possibly including a major flare,

remains possible in Region 9866.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III.  Event Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar

Class M    60/50/50

Class X    10/05/05

Proton     05/01/01

PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           15 Mar 176

Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar  175/175/170

90 Day Mean        15 Mar 215

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  002/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar  004/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  005/005-008/008-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01