NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 15 Mar 2001
:Product: 0315RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Mar 15 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 9373 (S07W06) produced several B-class subflares with the largest a B8/SF at 15/1452 UTC. This Region remains the largest and seemingly most complex on the visible disk. Region 9384 (N10W11) also produced subflares since yesterday. This sunspot group is growing and presently has a small D-type sunspot configuration. Region 9383 (S10W58) has also grown but has not yet produced significant flares. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. C-class activity is possible in Regions 9373, 9383, and 9384. Region 9373 appears to be the most capable of low-level M-class activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet with occasional unsettled periods. III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar Class M 35/30/30 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Mar 136 Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 135/130/130 90 Day Mean 15 Mar 162 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 005/005-008/007-008/007 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 .
