Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 15 Mar 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
March 15, 2001
Filed under ,
:Product: 0315RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2001 Mar 15 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 9373 (S07W06)
produced several B-class subflares with the largest a B8/SF at
15/1452 UTC. This Region remains the largest and seemingly most
complex on the visible disk. Region 9384 (N10W11) also produced
subflares since yesterday. This sunspot group is growing and 
presently has a small D-type sunspot configuration. Region 9383
(S10W58) has also grown but has not yet produced significant flares.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be  low.
C-class activity is possible in Regions 9373, 9383, and 9384. Region
9373 appears to be the most capable of low-level M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet with occasional unsettled
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M    35/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Mar 136
Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar  135/130/130
90 Day Mean        15 Mar 162
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  005/005-008/007-008/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.