NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 15 Jul 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jul 15 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class
event during the period. Region 9539 (S18W15) produced an M1/Sf
flare at 14/2133 UTC. Region 9539 was by far, the most active region
on the visible disk. It also produced a C7/1f flare and a C6/Sf
flare during the period. This regions rapid growth has somewhat
stabilized for the time being. However, it continues to posses a
beta-gamma magnetic classification. Other regions of note were 9533
(S08W54) and newly numbered regions 9542 (N06E66) and 9543 (S24E71),
all of which produced optical subflares during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
mostly low levels. Region 9539 is capable of producing isolated
M-class events.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels during the first two days
of the forecast period, due to possible coronal hole effects.
Conditions should subside to quiet to unsettled levels on the third
day.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jul 142
Predicted   16 Jul-18 Jul  140/145/145
90 Day Mean        15 Jul 159
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  013/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  012/013-012/013-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01