NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 15 Jan 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 15 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar Activity was low.  Region 9306 (N12W38) produced
a short duration C9/Sf X-ray event at 15/1603Z, and a C4/Sf at
15/1847Z.  Several other minor C-class events were also observed,
some optically uncorrelated.  Since yesterday, a slight decrease was
noted in the number of spots in Region 9306 with no significant
change in white light area or magnetic complexity.  However, minor
growth was observed in Region 9308 during the period.  New Regions
9310 (N26E37), and 9311 (N04E53) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low.  Region 9306 continues to be capable of producing an
isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jan 169
Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan  170/175/180
90 Day Mean        15 Jan 175
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  005/008-008/010-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01