NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 15 Dec 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Dec 15 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Maximum activity continues to
be sporadic minor C-class events.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low,
with the chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet at all latitudes for the past 24
hours.  The greater than 2 MeV flux continued its recent daily
fluctuation between low and moderate levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be low, with isolated periods of unsettled conditions,
for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Dec 188
Predicted   16 Dec-18 Dec  190/190/195
90 Day Mean        15 Dec 176
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec  003/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01