Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 15 Aug 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
August 15, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 15 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  The largest event of the
period was an optically uncorrelated C3 flare at 15/0243 UTC. 
Region 9574 (S04W66) produced a C1/Sf at 15/1242 UTC.  This region
remains the largest on the visible disk, but has decayed somewhat in
spot count, areal coverage, and magnetic complexity since yesterday.
Most of the other numbered regions on the disk have also similarly
decayed or remained little changed, and quiet.  Exceptions are
formerly spotless Region 9577 (N13W61), which had new spots emerge
today, and two newly numbered regions:  9581 (S28W09) and 9582
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next three days.  A small chance for
isolated moderate flare activity still exists for Region 9574 and
the newly emerged regions noted in Section 1A above.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been mainly quiet, with isolated unsettled
periods.  Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached moderate enhancement levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first day of the forecast
period.  Thereafter, an onset of magnetic storming is anticipated
from the CME activity of 14 August, with active to minor storm
conditions and isolated major storm periods possible at higher
latitudes.  Conditions are expected to return to predominantly
unsettled levels by day three.  Moderate to high flux levels for
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit are also
possible throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Aug 147
Predicted   16 Aug-18 Aug  145/140/140
90 Day Mean        15 Aug 151
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug  015/015-025/025-017/017
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/30
Minor storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/40/30
Minor storm           15/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.