Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 14 Sep 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
September 14, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Sep 14 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Several C-class flares
occurred during the period.  A long duration C5/Sf was observed from
Region 9608 (S28W44) at 14/1848 UTC.  This region has grown slightly
in area and spot count since yesterday and retains its beta-gamma
magnetic classification.  Also of interest are Regions 9610 (S14W31)
and 9616 (S10E44), both are magnetically complex and possess a
beta-gamma configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  There is a chance for a major flare from Regions 9608,
9610, and 9616.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.  A weak shock was
observed by the ACE spacecraft at approximately 14/0120 UTC.  This
activity is possibly the result of the DSF activity of 11 September.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Active conditions are possible
on 16 September as a result of the flares on 12 September.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Sep 237
Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep  235/230/225
90 Day Mean        14 Sep 165
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  011/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  012/012-015/015-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.