NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 14 Sep 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Sep 14 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares occurred during the period. A long duration C5/Sf was observed from Region 9608 (S28W44) at 14/1848 UTC. This region has grown slightly in area and spot count since yesterday and retains its beta-gamma magnetic classification. Also of interest are Regions 9610 (S14W31) and 9616 (S10E44), both are magnetically complex and possess a beta-gamma configuration. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a chance for a major flare from Regions 9608, 9610, and 9616. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. A weak shock was observed by the ACE spacecraft at approximately 14/0120 UTC. This activity is possibly the result of the DSF activity of 11 September. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are possible on 16 September as a result of the flares on 12 September. III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep Class M 70/70/70 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Sep 237 Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 235/230/225 90 Day Mean 14 Sep 165 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 011/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 012/012-015/015-012/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05
