NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 14 Oct 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 14 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only a few, small C-class
flares were observed, mostly in Region 9661 (N15E30). This remains
the largest sunspot group on the visible disk and has maintained its
beta-delta magnetic configuration. New Regions 9666 (S12E31) and
9667 (N24E73) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9661 appears to be capable of an isolated major
flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Oct 192
Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct  200/205/205
90 Day Mean        14 Oct 185
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01