NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 14 Nov 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Nov 14 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 9690 (S17W48) produced
several minor C-class flares, the largest being a C5/Sf at 14/0924Z.
This region continues to decay in size and has simplified somewhat
in magnetic complexity. A C5 flare was observed on the SW limb at
14/1802Z. Region 9697 (N12E34) produced occasional minor C-class
flares this period, including a C2/1f flare at 14/0102Z. Five new
regions were numbered today: Region 9702 (N22W07), 9703 (N22E12),
9704 (S18E70), 9705 (N14E49), and 9706 (N15E65).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9690 still maintains potential for M-class activity
and an isolated major flare. Region 9697 has a slight chance of
producing an M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M    80/80/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Nov 217
Predicted   15 Nov-17 Nov  220/220/215
90 Day Mean        14 Nov 215
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  010/010-010/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01