NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 14 May 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 May 14 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Activity decreased to low levels. Region 9455 (S17W24)
remained the most active of the visible regions. It produced
isolated C-class subflares, the largest of which was a C5/Sf at
14/0324 UTC. No significant changes occurred within this region, but
mixed polarities persisted within its intermediate spots. Some
polarity mixing was also observed in the vicinity of the leading
spots of Region 9454 (N12E18), which was relatively inactive during
the period. The remaining spot groups were unremarkable, including
newly numbered Regions 9458 (S11W45), 9459 (N26W09), and 9460
(S24E60).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with a fair chance for an isolated M-class
flare from Region 9455. There will also be a slight chance for an
isolated M-class flare from Region 9454.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to active levels until
approximately 14/0900 UTC, then decreased to quiet to unsettled
levels for the rest of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit increased to high levels during the
latter half of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the
period with a chance for active levels at high latitudes. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
during the first half of the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 May 138
Predicted   15 May-17 May  145/150/155
90 Day Mean        14 May 167
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  017/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  012/015-012/020-007/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01