NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 14 Mar 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Mar 14 2210 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z

to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. Region 9866 (S10E07) produced

an M5/2b flare at 14/0150 UTC. This Region also produced a number of

subflares. It remains the largest sunspot group on the disk and

retains its delta magnetic configuration in the trailer portion.

Region 9871 (S20E58) produced an M1/Sf flare at 13/2335 UTC. This

area also produced C-class activity.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be

moderate. Additional M-class flares are expected in Regions 9866 and

9871. Another major flare in 9866 is also possible.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III.  Event Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar

Class M    60/60/60

Class X    10/10/10

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           14 Mar 181

Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar  185/190/195

90 Day Mean        14 Mar 216

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  006/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar  004/004

Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  008/008-008/006-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01