NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 14 Mar 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Mar 14 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. The largest x-ray flare of
the past day was a B9 at 14/1211 UTC. No optical flare reports were
received for this particular event. Region 9373 (S08E07) remains the
largest and most complex area on the visible disk and has changed
little since yesterday. New Regions 9382 (N09W74), 9383 (S09W44),
and 9384 (N10E02) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 9373 is the most likely source of activity,
including the possibility of an isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M    40/35/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Mar 142
Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar  140/135/135
90 Day Mean        14 Mar 163
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar  010/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  005/005-005/005-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01