NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 14 Jan 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Jan 14 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z

to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  The largest event of

the period was a long duration M4.4 flare, associated with an

evident CME from a source behind the southwest limb, at 14/0627 UTC.

M-class activity from regions on the visible disk included an M1/2n

from Region 9782 (N07E33) at 14/0156 UTC, and an M1/Sf from Region

9775 (S06W57) at 14/0136 UTC.  The largest active region on the

visible disk, Region 9773 (N16W70), appears to be degrading somewhat

as it approaches the west limb, but maintains its moderate size and

magnetic complexity.  Region 9782 and nearby Region 9785 (N11E41)

exhibited some increases in areal coverage and magnetic complexity

during the period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate for the next three days.  Isolated major flare activity

is possible from the regions discussed in Section 1A above.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  High speed stream

effects from a favorably positioned coronal hole appeared to wane

with falling solar wind velocities over the course of the period.

Particle fluxes for >10MeV protons and >2MeV electrons were

enhanced, but remained below event thresholds.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is

expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled.  Enhancements of

particle fluxes for >10MeV protons or >2MeV electrons could result

in above-threshold events during the period.

III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan

Class M    75/75/75

Class X    20/20/15

Proton     30/20/15

PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           14 Jan 229

Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan  235/240/240

90 Day Mean        14 Jan 224

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  010/011

Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan  010/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  007/008-007/005-010/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/15/20

Minor storm           10/10/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/15/20

Minor storm           10/10/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01