NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 14 Jan 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 14 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Mostly optically uncorrelated
minor C-class events occurred during the period.  Region 9306
(N12W25) did produce a C8/Sf at 14/0254Z.  Region 9306 continued to
show growth and is currently an Fac beta-gamma sunspot group with
over 500 millionths of white light area and approximately 60 spots. 
No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with an increasing chance of M-Class activity from Region 9306.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  A flilament erupted on
the northwest limb at approximately 14/0430Z.  This event and the
associated CME following was observed in the SOHO/LASCO imagery.  At
this time, most of the energy from this CME does not appear
earth-directed.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M    40/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jan 176
Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan  185/190/190
90 Day Mean        14 Jan 175
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan  008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01