NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 14 Feb 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Feb 14 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z

to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Today’s flare activity

consisted of a few C-class flares. The largest was a C4/1f at 0142

UTC. Most of today’s flare activity was produced by 9825 (N13E01).

9825 is currently the largest, most complex region on the disk and

continued to grow slowly. Region 9821 (S12W66) continues to decay.

Two new regions rotated into view: 9829 (S07E74), a small C-type

group, and 9830 (S22E73), a small H-type group. Numerous CMEs were

observed in LASCO imagery today. Of these, a CME that was first seen

in C2 at 14/0254 UTC was associated with disk activity in EIT in the

southwest quadrant, and appears to have at least some earthward

component.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be

mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event from

9825. There is a very slight chance for a major flare from 9825.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. An increase

to mostly unsettled is possible on day two due to coronal hole

effects.me=” three is expected to be unsettled to slightly active

due to possible geoeffectiveness from today’s CME that originated

from the southwest part of the solar disk.

III.  Event Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb

Class M    45/45/45

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     05/10/10

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           14 Feb 196

Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb  195/190/190

90 Day Mean        14 Feb 222

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  011/010

Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb  005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  007/008-010/012-015/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/25/35

Minor storm           10/15/20

Major-severe storm    01/05/10

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/30/35

Minor storm           10/15/25

Major-severe storm    01/05/10