Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 14 Feb 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
February 14, 2001
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 14 2250 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A single C-class event
occurred, a C1/Sf from Region 9350 (N18E30), at 14/0618 UTC. Most of
the regions remained stable during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. The solar
wind speed remained in the 500 to 600 km/s range during most of the
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during the first half of the period
and then quiet to unsettled during the remainder.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Feb 138
Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb  140/145/145
90 Day Mean        14 Feb 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  016/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb  020/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  015/015-010/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/40/40
Minor storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.