NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 14 Feb 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 14 2250 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A single C-class event
occurred, a C1/Sf from Region 9350 (N18E30), at 14/0618 UTC. Most of
the regions remained stable during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. The solar
wind speed remained in the 500 to 600 km/s range during most of the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during the first half of the period
and then quiet to unsettled during the remainder.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 138
Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 140/145/145
90 Day Mean 14 Feb 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 016/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 020/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 015/015-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/30
Minor storm 20/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 50/40/40
Minor storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/05/05