NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 14 Dec 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Dec 14 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels. The largest
event was a long duration M4/2n flare from Region 9733 (N14W10) at
14/1954 UTC. This event may have produced an earth-directed coronal
mass ejection (CME) due to its near central meridian location.
Images from the SOHO/LASCO spacecraft were not available at the time
of this forecast. If an earth-directed, full-halo cme was created by
this flare, its impact on earth would be approximately 40 to 60
hours from the time of origin. Region 9733 continues to maintain its
size and magnetic complexity. Region 9727 (S21W77) also remained
active during the period, producing one M-class flare and several
optical subflares. An M3 flare with an associated Type II radio
sweep (approx. velocity of 707 km/s), and an impressive CME was
observed at 14/0913 UTC. The originating source appears to be just
beyond the east limb as loop prominences were visible on the east
limb at N06, from 14/0938 to 1035 UTC. The resulting CME is
primarily eastward directed and should not be geoeffective.  The
noon Penticton 10 cm flux was estimated at 217 sfu as the actual
measurement was enhanced due to the M3/2N flare.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate to high levels. Regions 9727 and 9733 are both capable
of producing major flares. Region 9727 will rotate over the western
limb on 15 December. The region that produced the M3 flare and CME
should rotate onto the disk during the first day of the forecast
period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions early on the first
day. Active conditions are expected late on the first day and into
the second day. These active conditions will be caused by a glancing
blow from a CME that originated from an X6/3b flare on 13 December.
Conditions should return to quiet to unsettled levels on day three.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M    80/70/70
Class X    20/15/15
Proton     20/15/15
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Dec 217
Predicted   15 Dec-17 Dec  220/210/200
90 Day Mean        14 Dec 218
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  015/015-025/025-015/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/45/25
Minor storm           25/30/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05