NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 14 Dec 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Dec 14 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low, with only minor C-class events
observed within the past 24 hours.  Of the ten spotted regions
currently on the visible disk, Regions 9264 (S24E16) and 9267
(N07W02) have been the originators for most recent flare activity,
the largest being a C6/Sf from Region 9267 at 14/1523Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low,
with the possibility for an isolated minor M-class event, for the
next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes for the past 24
hours.  The greater than 2 MeV flux continued it's recent daily
fluctuation between low and moderate levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet, with isolated periods of unsettled
conditions, for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Dec 182
Predicted   15 Dec-17 Dec  185/185/190
90 Day Mean        14 Dec 176
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec  003/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01