NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 14 Aug 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 14 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low, with the largest event being an
impulsive C9 flare, associated with an eruptive prominence on the
east limb near N40, at 14/0944 UTC.  There was also a long duration
C2 event, with associations to a disappearing filament near N26W10,
as well as a sympathetic subfaint flare in spotless plage Region
9577 (N16W36), at 14/1242 UTC.  A full halo CME was evident in
SOHO/LASCO imagery following this event.  Two new regions were
numbered today:  9579 (S17W10) and 9580 (N24E73).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, with an isolated chance for moderate flare
activity from Region 9574 (S04W61), or from closely spaced regions
9570 (S10W47) and 9578 (S08W38).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, under the continuing
influence of weak high speed stream effects from a coronal hole.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the first two days. 
Isolated active conditions are possible during the first day, as the
weak coronal hole effects wane.  By day three, active to minor storm
conditions, with isolated major storm periods, are possible due to 
the expected shock arrival from the CME activity described above in 
section 1A.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Aug 147
Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug  145/145/140
90 Day Mean        14 Aug 151
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  015/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug  012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  012/012-015/015-025/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/35
Minor storm           10/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/40
Minor storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/10